Da Mo: a series of surveys and related adjustments on the app store will not have a great impact on Apple's performance

TechWeb 2021-09-15 02:27:46

Beijing time. 9 month 9 Morning news , Morgan Stanley released a research report this week saying , Apple App Store Recent regulatory investigations and corresponding adjustments will not have much impact on the company's financial performance .

Katie, Morgan Stanley analyst · Huberti (Katy Huberty) Studied with apple App Store A series of relevant news reports , Including a settlement of a developer lawsuit , Passage of the Korean app store act , India launches antitrust investigation against Apple , And the update of Apple reader application policy . She thinks , Even in the worst case ,App Store These adjustments will only affect Apple's earnings per share 1% To 2% Influence .

Hubertie thinks , In these announcements and investigations , The policy update of reader application is the most important , This settled an investigation by the Japan Fair Trade Commission . However , Because readers are used in App Store The proportion of revenue is less than 8%, Therefore, the financial impact on Apple will not be obvious . She wrote :“ Suppose in the worst case , Apple stopped from the top 20 Get financial benefits from your reader application , Then it may lead to the decline of service business revenue 4%, Total revenue fell 1%, as well as 2022 Earnings per share fell in the fiscal year 2% about . let me put it another way , We think , Recently about App Store Although the report is very interesting , But it will not have a material impact on Apple's revenue or profits .”

She pointed out that , Apple's spontaneous change is “ Take the initiative to adjust App Store Internal balance of power ” One way , It can give developers more value . meanwhile , This is also an embodiment of Apple's industry self-discipline , It helps to reduce the pressure of legal proceedings and hidden worries about antitrust . Besides , Apple is not going to make the same adjustments to game apps , And game apps are Apple's “ Cash cow ”, About... Of developer revenue 63%.

From a broader perspective , Hubertie thinks , With the relaxation of epidemic restrictions and the return of consumer activities to normal ,App Store The revenue will be lower than her previous forecast . Morgan Stanley estimates , By 8 End of month ,App Store Our net revenue will increase year-on-year 12.2%, Than previously predicted 20% low 8 percentage .

According to the report :“ And 6 Year on year growth in January 16% comparison , The growth rate of net revenue decreased . This shows that , The warmer weather in summer and the reopening of the economy ( Plus two weeks of the Olympics ) Is causing consumers to reduce their use of digital services .” therefore , Morgan Stanley will 9 This month this quarter App Store The year-on-year growth rate of revenue is expected to be adjusted to 12.2%, take 2022 The full year forecast is adjusted to 15.6%, Lower than the previous 20% and 19%.

however , This negative trend is offset by Apple's other service revenue , Including advertising revenue , And Google to ensure that it becomes iOS The fees paid to apple for the default search engine . therefore , Huberty to Apple 2021 The revenue growth of service business in the fourth quarter of fiscal year is expected to increase from the previous 25% Slightly down to 24%, At the same time 2022 The growth rate in the fiscal year is expected to increase from 15.8% Up to 17.2%.

Hubertie maintains Apple's 12 Monthly target share price 168 The dollar doesn't change , This is equivalent to 2022 Forward looking enterprise value revenue ratio in 7 times , Forward looking P / E ratio 30 times .