Metaverse in Ar / VR and trend analysis
Cubic airx 2021-08-09 16:31:44

lately 【 Third power 】 There are many small partners in our knowledge community to discuss Metaverse Meta universe , This is a selection of several ideas to share with you :

  • Who will have the meta universe ?
  • Tencent's meta universe ecological map
  • AR Medium Metaverse
  • Primordial 9 Big trend

Roblox、Epic、Genies and Zepeto Use the term metaverse, and Facebook Use Live Maps, and Magic Leap prefer Magicverse.Kevin Kelley stay Wired Call it Mirrorworld, and Nvidia Use the term Omniverse. Others prefer terminology AR cloud 、 Space Internet or space network .

Who will have the meta universe ?

Metaverse It's not so much a complete reality , It's more like an idea , It refers to the expanding virtuality we share . As human beings living in the information age , Our presence in the world is increasingly mediated ; By being able to record and transmit almost all conceivable human activities into digital information , We work in the virtual Abstract field . The meta universe is the ultimate realization of this model ; Not necessarily through computers and smartphones , But through powerful immersive Technology , Such as virtual reality and augmented reality . When these technologies become accessible , This may have happened earlier than we thought , Such a Metaverse The value of will be unimaginable .

The reason is simple : Virtual reality is more affordable than reality 、 More flexible . for example , Virtual offices and screens cost almost nothing , So you don't need to commute long . However , In addition to opening up new solutions ;Metaverse The value of will first be associated with everything that has been done in a virtual environment , Social media, for example 、 Bank 、 Information 、 Games and entertainment . Integrate these tasks 、 The ability to transform into our inclusive reality has completely changed the essence of virtuality . Everything we have done effectively on the World Wide Web , We can all be in “ Realistic format ” Experience , Not the abstract symbols on our smartphones . To say the least , This has huge commercial potential , Because we humans will be deeply involved in this technology ; In short , The potential of the universe is enormous , Even if it has not yet been achieved , The giants are also ensuring that it will achieve .

The battle of the meta universe has begun ,, We may be affected —— Whether through advertising or political belief . The challenge in empowering private companies is the potential difference between our interests and those of private participants . We've seen this on social media today , With the increase of immersion and data collection , There will only be more and more problems .

Tencent's meta universe ecological map

AR Medium Metaverse

Metaverse In science fiction Neal Stephenson The works of “ Snow Crash” in . It refers to the virtual world on the Internet . therefore , It is now used as “ Internet The second real world in the world ” A general term for , But there is no correct definition . The following seven elements are always included in metaverse In the elements :

1. endless

2. Always in sync

3. Anyone can take part in , Unrestricted access to

4. Have their own economic system

5. Provide offline and online services , Open and closed experience

6. Data digitization, asset content interoperability to an unprecedented level, and so on

7. Content and experience created by various people

Primordial 9 Big trend

1. The prevalence of virtualization

People increasingly think that the virtual world is as real as the physical world .

In the physical world , Trust is the way relationships and institutions work . It is the enterprise's vigorous development in the legal system 、 The basis for the continued operation of the money market , It's also a way to measure the connection between people . Trust enables the above system to develop and extend .

With trust in “ fictitious ” Increase in the field , That is, having online friends 、 Virtual goods 、 Encryption assets 、 Smart contracts and real-time online experiences , The extensibility of the universe and the industry areas supporting it also increases .

But under the general trend , There is always a countercurrent . People's attention to the virtual world will also make those who try to use it excited .

Cybercrime is an example that many people are familiar with , Such as stealing your account information through phishing 、 Implement all kinds of network fraud 、 Use blackmail software to attack and spread virus software, etc .

Cyber bullying and abuse 、 The harm of cheating in the game and cheating in the relationship will increase , Because people believe that virtual relationships and virtual assets are real . As its possible value increases , These actions will intensify , The cost of companies that aim to combat crime and abuse will become higher .

Products alone cannot solve these problems , Education is also needed 、 train 、 Virtual literacy 、 Community and parental support .

2. Low code platform

Low code and zero code application platforms (LCAP) Provides more advanced program tools ( Such as visual development of scaffolding and drag tools ), To replace the process 、 Manual coding of logic and Applications .

The most obvious benefit of this trend is that non programmers can do some of the work that programmers used to do . however , The impact of low code platforms goes far beyond that , The company adopts these platforms not only for the above considerations .

LCAP The magic of is the amount of automation that takes place in the visualization layer : workflow 、 Deploy 、 Safety monitoring 、 Extension and integration of various data endpoints . generally speaking , To achieve this complexity and scale is equivalent to completing a large part of the development of Internet applications .

This not only changes who does the job , It also significantly reduces the amount of work required to create applications .

Information research and analysis company Gartner forecast , To 2023 There will be more than 50% Used by large enterprises LCAP To operate at least part of the enterprise infrastructure .

Similarly , Many of these developers are working towards a serverless Architecture ( A somewhat confusing term , Because there is usually a server , Just don't need to deploy yourself 、 Manage or code ) Stride forward .

At the other end of the enterprise , People have more and more creation tools , You can easily create metacosmic content 、 Write complex behaviors and participate in business activities .

People always think that products either serve large enterprises , Or serve small businesses , But that's not the case . Although technology serving large enterprises is often difficult to extend down to individuals , But there are many examples of , One can control , This has become the simplest choice for enterprises . These can be said to include Adobe Everything the company has done . lately , image Shopify Such codeless / Low code platforms have been able to support everything from small businesses to some of the world's largest brands ( Like a child's treasure 、 Budweiser et al ).

A wider group of creators will build more and more metauniverses , These metauniverses will also be supported by deeper plug-in applications and logical directories .

3. Machine intelligence system

Machines are doing more work than humans did before , This includes what is sometimes called deep learning 、 The field of machine learning and artificial intelligence .

We live in an advertising message 、 In a world where both commodity marketing and online dating have been adjusted by learning algorithms . But this kind of natural language processing and image recognition is still in its early stage . In the physical world , The realization of applications such as automatic driving is just around the corner .

In the metauniverse , Machine intelligence is like all the other trends you see here .

It will affect creativity , Because computers have become collaborators in the creative process —— Let's see. AI Dungeon How to generate stories , perhaps Promethean AI How to build a virtual landscape —— Imagine how far it will go in the next ten years .

Artificial intelligence will be used to design microchips to start the metauniverse , And generate code to assist programmers .

The machine will translate gestures 、 Predict where our eyes are 、 Recognize emotions , Even recognize our nerve impulses .

Machine intelligence will be embedded in our codeless and low code application platforms , They will run together as part of the service architecture and design consultants .

Agents driven by our preferences and interests will present the information we want when we need it . meanwhile , More and more virtual elements will spread all over the world we visit .

4. The rise of cybernetics

Cybernetics came quietly , Now its application has not formed a scale , It is also underdeveloped and amazing , But the future will .

Cybernetics refers to the human sensory system 、 The combination of motion system and computer . The current use case is to use the input of video games / Output devices 、 Wearable device 、 Mobile phone acceleration sensor and sensor VR Head display equipment, etc .

Miniaturization and high-speed networks have transformed the devices in fixed workstations into mobile supercomputers in our pockets . These computers are getting closer and closer to our bodies .

We are moving from looking at computers only from an external perspective to one where we will occupy virtual space 、 Living in a future surrounded by computers .

“ A smart phone ” It already feels like an old term , Because these are not mobile phones —— They are highly portable computers , Just happens to have the phone installed in advance app. We can already pass such as Oculus Wait for the brand VR Take up virtual space , these VR The equipment will also be harmful to our eyes 、 The position of the head and gestures respond . When these become smart glasses , We can bring these experiences to the wider space around us . some time , We may even have functional smart contact lenses .

Light field technology can even allow us to project photons to the retina with their corresponding field depth , Focus your eyes on different parts of the virtual scene , To get a real holographic experience .

These devices will increasingly recognize our voice commands 、 Gestures and biometric information . Neural interfaces can even make our devices understand our intentions —— Even faster than we know .

What about the result ? The primordial universe will be more than just a place for us , And will be our “ Everywhere ”.

The integration of wearable technology and mobile technology is not only a technological change , It is also a social change . It will change our family 、 Public transportation 、 The organizational structure of the community and the workplace . It will change how you meet people 、 Order 、 The way to discover the world and cooperative projects .

5. The challenges of Open Systems

People want a highly distributed network when they build the Internet 、 De centralization 、 Collaborative computer and application networks .

Today's Internet consists of several very large platforms as gatekeepers and toll stations .

however , Technology and open standards are taking shape , This may make the future of the metauniverse more democratic .

WebAssembly (Wasm) Promises to provide fast access to open networks 、 Security 、 Binary application of sandbox .WebGL and WebXR Will provide computer graphics and immersive experiences outside the app store . image Unity Data oriented technology stack (Unity DOTS) Such platforms are using these platforms to provide efficient binary compressed files that can reach the level required by the metauniverse ( especially Unity Of Project Tiny).

Open system is also a social phenomenon , Because they allow extensive collaboration between software engineering projects . Reed's law predicts Slack or WhatsApp The exponential value of applications such as , It can also be applied to the open source movement —— This is essentially a social network where software developers don't need a license

image Wasm Such open source and open platform can maximize the number of potential partners , Create more value than the sum of all platforms that need to be licensed . image Linux and PC In this way, the platform without license should also flourish in the future .

similarly , People can also use technologies such as zero knowledge proof and decentralized digital identity system to regain sovereignty over their own data . This may encourage consumers to submit more personal data to Internet applications with confidence —— Just because they don't need to trust anyone .

If we can open applications and data , It is possible to realize the exponential growth of network effect .

6. The adoption of blockchain

Blockchain is a distributed ledger technology , It can play the role of open source and open Internet on software and applications for assets and data .

Blockchain allows data exchange without trust ; Decentralized authority 、 Records of history and sources , Provable assets are scarce . When they disperse , Blockchain supports the participation of unauthorized persons , Or through decentralized governance .

Programmability is a key feature of blockchain . Although not all blockchains can be programmed , But it's Ethereum and others “ Smart contracts ” A key aspect of the chain .

Why is this so important ? Or because of the network effect . The more nodes that can participate in the network , The higher the value of the network , Moreover, because groups can plan some specific activities ( Such as game 、 Financial building blocks, etc ), So according to Reed's law , The value of the network will further increase .

These value contributions are exponential . More people 、 Integration of more applications and more components , It means smarter contracts and more decentralized applications .

Blockchain is considered to be “ No trust ”, Because you don't need to trust any authority ; Trust exists in the blockchain itself .

All these untrusted applications 、 The overall long tail distribution of contracts and components gives the blockchain social scalability .

The network effect has become the data source on the chain ( Predicting machine ) Paved the way , It can serve as a condition for smart contracts ; And this leads to decentralized loans 、 Financial and asset exchange . The emergence of blockchain computing may replace some aspects of Cloud Computing ;NFT( Heterogeneous assets ) The rise of may become a virtual commodity in the emerging generation of games 、 The foundation of skin customization and metacosmic experience .

When you open assets on an open source network 、 Data and programmable contracts , Infinite possibilities are written from this .

7. Fence garden ecosystem

Walled Garden —— I like to use this word , Because gardens can be beautiful , At the same time, it is in order —— Benefit from all other general trends affecting the meta universe .

Not every application or every world will be open . Sometimes , The license 、 Integrate 、 Management and control are ideal features of a platform or application . If these features are not integrated ,Roblox Will never become popular .

Ironically , Walled gardens also benefit from open systems that challenge them . They use the same open source and blockchain as others , And many customers may feel safer inside .

The walled garden itself is not a problem , Too few walled gardens are 2021 The problem of ecosystem in . You should be able to easily create your own walled garden , And invite other creators to participate according to the rules you define 、 add to 、 Modification and interconnection .

With more and more walled gardens , The question then arises , That is, how to make every garden be found . Some things like Roblox( One of them “ Game version YouTube”) Hierarchical exploration system , It is driven by search and popularity . And because people like to manage , Developers are keen to link more visitors , This situation will continue . however , Portable avatar 、 Portable social networks and interoperability approaches are beginning to emerge —— This may connect various walled gardens through open platforms , At the same time, it will trigger new opportunities for exploration, discovery and management .

some time , We may have a hypermedia like structure , Portals connect different worlds and different experiences —— It's like web hyperlinks in the virtual world , Or the meta universe's super portal .

8. The acceleration of distributed network speed

5G The network takes the speed of the mobile network 、 The number of concurrent connections and latency rate have been improved by several orders of magnitude . and 5G Nor is it the end of the road , because 6G These indicators will be raised again 10-100 times . We'll see... In ten years 10Gbps The network speed and drop to 1ms Delay of .

Speeding up internet speed is necessary to support the metauniverse , But it is also true that when all participants in the network can share real-time data, the network effect has brought us some of the most interesting applications .

Because the LAN layer is no longer the bottleneck , So the focus will shift to moving more computing power directly to the network “ far ” End . Sometimes at the local cell phone tower , Sometimes it may be in your home , The information there will be preprocessed and appear on your control device .

Many drivers of applications AI Will run at the edge , Because it's going to be remote / It's still too slow to process all the information in a centralized way . The future requires rapid interoperability between local computing devices and data sources . This sometimes means predicting applications in the metauniverse at the edge , Because the predictions of behavior and physics in the metauniverse are very accurate .

9. Simulate reality

these years , Almost every model has 3D Image games are played through a game called shader A programmed software system to generate real-time images . Ray tracing technology uses optical principles to simulate the process of photons bouncing and shuttling between different materials to form images , Can create more beautiful and realistic images —— That's why it's used for pre rendered content such as movies —— However, its requirements for processing capacity are also more stringent .

But real-time ray tracing is not far away .

This is just an example of how we can simulate reality in a machine . such as NVIDIA Omniverse One of the use cases of the platform is to simulate fluid dynamics : First imagine that it can accurately present the appearance of the river , Or simulate HVAC systems ( It can be used to identify the adaptability of a building during a respiratory disease pandemic ). Then imagine that all these simulators and artificial intelligence engines are embedded in an interoperable Architecture , And the framework allows logic and prediction to simulate a virtual machine 、 goods 、 Environment and human world .

The data will also come from the exponential growth of data in the physical world . This includes geospatial data and traffic data 、 The digital twin of the physical object used to report properties 、 A oracle that reports financial data to smart contracts (oracles), And real-time data about people and running processes .

We will have more than just an Internet of things —— It will be a “ All things connected ” Network of —— And predictive analysis 、 Combination of artificial intelligence and real-time visualization .

These innovations will enable the meta universe to surpass and predict the real world , At the same time, it also provides power for the next generation of physics based games , They make them more beautiful than any game so far 、 More immersive .

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2021-08-09