3 month 26 Japanese hedge fund manager Bill · yellow （Bill Hwang） Family office Archegos Capital Burst warehouse , One day selling 190 Billion dollars , Lead to Baidu 、 Tencent music 、 Vipshop 、 Iqiyi 、 Who to learn from and Viacom and other popular U.S. stocks plummeted , The market value of related stocks evaporated 330 Billion dollars , A number of banks because of Bill Hwang The explosion suffered heavy losses . bill · yellow （Bill Hwang） The impact of the explosion may continue , Some pessimists are already worried about whether this will become the next one “ Lehman brothers ” event , Triggering a systemic financial crisis .
actually , The violent shock occurred in the capital stock market , It started after the Spring Festival . Affected by the rise in US bond yields and many other events , There has been a sharp correction in China capital stock , Among many stars, the market value of capital stock has been cut off compared with the high point . Many of the investors I've come to realize are getting more and more confused , I don't know where to go , Even if it's Feng “ Value investment ” For investors in guigao , Have been shaken .
3 month 29 After a major change in the stock price , Chen Xiangdong, the founder and chairman of the board of directors, sent an internal letter to stabilize the morale of the army , And then 3 month 30 He announced 5000 Who can learn the plan of increasing individual stock holdings with us $10000 . Read Chen Xiangdong's internal letter carefully , I think for the confused investors right now , Worth reading .
stay 2145 The inner letter of the word , Chen Xiangdong quoted Buffett many times 、 Graham and other value investment masters' golden sentences and warnings about value investment , The whole inside letter is about “ Long term doctrine ”, These ideas make investors no longer confused , For businesses , It is “ Do your ”, In Chen Xiangdong's words ：“ As you might say , These are just numbers , The most important thing is that we do ourselves well .” For investors , I think the following views are worth pondering ：
First , Focus on stock price fluctuation or enterprise core value ？
In his internal letter, Chen Xiangdong quoted Buffett's famous saying ：“ Stock prices are like voting machines in the short term , It's like a weighing machine for a long time .” He thinks that ： In the long term , The core factor that drives and determines stock prices is performance , It's value creation , It is operation efficiency and operation benefit .
Investors should pay more attention to the core value creation ability of enterprises , Long term barriers to competition , Sustainable growth , Predictable returns . If you are really optimistic about an enterprise, you don't need to pay attention to the temporary rise and fall of the stock , Because there are many reasons why stocks go up and down , Like Bill · yellow （Bill Hwang） There's something wrong with personal risk control , But in fact , stay 3 month 26 On this night , Baidu 、 Tencent music 、 Vipshop 、 Iqiyi 、 There is no change in the value of the company . So the more volatile the environment is , The more investors have to stick to their original intention , Hold firm to the company you like , Don't be undulated to “ earthquake ” Got out . It's very difficult , It's a test of human nature .
Mr. Munger, Mr. Buffett's partner, once said , Investment should have “ Extreme patience and determination ”, It's hard to find really good things , You need to be very patient , Take the initiative when it's time to take action , It means that long-term investment should be operated less , Wait more , When you find a good opportunity, go all out , Long term holding , Harvest the value created by the enterprise ,“ The price is what you pay , Value is what you get .”
Whether it's Warren Buffett 、 Graham 、 Munger and other value investment masters , It's still a upstart like Zhang Lei , Everyone's ideas are basically the same , They are all telling investors that they should “ Long things should be seen ”, Focus on enterprise value , Instead of stocks going up and down . That's what Munger summed up “ Wait for the investment law ” The essence of ：“ You don't need a lot of action , It's a lot of patience , You have to stick to the principles , When the opportunity comes , You just grab them . Waiting for the good ball to come out , And then focus on investment .”
secondly , What investors should do when the market is volatile ？
Chen Xiangdong said that opportunities often appear when people are afraid ,“ I'm greedy when others are scared , I fear when others are greedy .” He quoted Warren Buffett as saying ：“ It's too late for real investors to like the volatility of the stock market .” And Benjamin · Graham “ Mr. market ” Metaphor ： A place “ Mr. market ” It's in front of you every day , If you will , You can buy or sell your investment from him . Need to know , The more depressed Mr. market is , The more opportunities you have . The more volatile the market is , The more opportunities there will be for ultra-low prices in some good stocks . It's hard to imagine this “ Sale at a discount ” It will be seen as a bad thing by investors .
For investors , Continuous unilateral market rise is not necessarily a good layout opportunity , It's like 2020 At the end of the year , Because maybe all the company's stocks are set off to a high level in extreme optimism , So that Elon Musk They all say that Tesla's share price is too high （ But from the results , Tesla's share price later increased several times .） But on the whole , In a stable or optimistic market , It's hard for investors to discover “ Wrong price ” Shares . The market is volatile , Will appear to be “ Manslaughter ” Or say “ oversold ” Shares . Investors just need to find the gold ,“ At a low price , Even a reasonable price , To buy companies that have sustainable competitive advantage .” When making a specific choice , Munger advises investors to “ Big nuggets of gold ”, Great enterprises with reasonable purchase price , Buy shares in great companies .
Last , No matter what investment philosophy we stick to, we should “ Reliability comes first ”.
Value investment is not equal to blind investment , Because any investment comes with risk , There is no sure investment in the world , Even value investing masters like Warren Buffett , There are also investments that have failed . therefore , Investors should have a sense of risk control , First of all, invest only the spare money that doesn't affect your life , It's like A Stock value investment star Lin Yuan said ： Never borrow money to invest ; Secondly, we should be careful to use leverage to buy the bottom and other high-risk investments related to financial derivatives ; Secondly, don't invest in the enterprises of dishonest and unreliable people , because “ Reliability is crucial ”; Finally, we should pay attention to the relationship between company value and price , Good companies matter , Good prices are equally important .
Munger warned investors to wake up every day a little bit better than yesterday , Spend a lifetime developing good investment habits . Risk control is one of the focuses of investment habits ： Only by doing a good job of risk control , To deal with any possible risk , It will not affect people's life or even come to a dead end because of investment failure ; Only by doing a good job of risk control , Only in this way can we stand still in the turbulent environment , Have the courage to insist on holding the company you are optimistic about , It won't be forced out ; Only by doing a good job of risk control , Only when the market environment fluctuates can we have capital to launch a new round of layout .
About who to learn from and why 3 month 26 There was a sharp drop in the stock price on the 21st , Chen Xiangdong himself made an analysis in his internal letter , He thinks that ：“ There is a possibility that the government is about to introduce a policy on subject education in primary and secondary schools , There are concerns about possible current Sino US relations , But the most important factor is the use of leverage by an American hedge fund , As a result, the shares they hold are forced to close out by investment banks , And then it has a significant negative impact on the stock price of the students .”
Refer to the above , Who should we learn from? Is it a long-term investment worthy enterprise , Is it a big gold nugget under the fluctuation of market environment ？ This problem , A lot of investors have doubts all the time , Because learning from someone is not just about 3 month 26 The stock price fluctuates every day , Since its listing, the company has been in the process of short selling by institutions and official clarification , It's constantly fluctuating .
according to an uncompleted statistic , Learn from who to beat the short agencies in a row 15 Time , Just in 2020 Citron capital in 、 Scorpio capital 、 Muddy water mechanism 、 Grizzly bear research and other short agencies are targeting , Short 12 Time , What's really magical is , The company beat the shorters again and again , Still the most valuable online education company .
Wonderful experience in the capital market , Let who learn from in the industry is very different . A very strange enterprise can attract the choice of students and parents , Get the blessing of investors , Get media attention . Weird but attractive , In popular terms, it's very “ Magic ”：“ Magic ” Achievements ,“ Magic ” Idea ,“ Magic ” The efficiency of ,“ Magic ” play ,“ Magic ” Class of ,“ Magic ” The founder of .“ Magic ”, This makes it stand out in the online education market , After becoming the largest online education company in the capital market , Beat the short agencies again and again , In the face of stock price fluctuations, it is still firm .
1、 Who do you want to learn from “ Magic ” The company . Chen Xiangdong himself has a long history 30 Years of education experience , But it's not a question of who to learn from at first to C The brand of ,2017 It was all one year ago to B Companies that provide educational technology services , After accumulating Educational Technology ,2017 It's only three years ago that we switched to war C Mid-market , do C Duan Chen Xiangdong didn't take the usual road , It's about building a private traffic team , Seize the Internet private domain traffic dividend , Through the official account 、 The rapid rise of low-cost traffic such as communities , The old-fashioned players were caught off guard overnight .2020 During the outbreak in, we successfully captured “ Attend classes without stopping school ” dividend , Accelerate Digital Education .
2、 Who to learn from is the best way to play in the online education industry “ Magic ” The company . When the cost of online education customers is extremely high due to the vigorous advertising of many competitors , Who to learn from is relatively conservative ,2020 It is far lower than the average investment level of the industry in recent years , It has realized the leading position of income scale . One side , Who to learn from is more focused , Focus on live online classes , For less efficient 、 The more risky offline layout is very cautious , Relatively restrained in marketing , Adhere to focus, pay close attention to teaching quality and teaching service ; On the other hand , Iterative organization 、 Continue to focus on R & D 、 Explore new marketing , Improve operational efficiency in an all-round way , It is very similar to the thinking of meituan in the thousand regiments war . here we are 2021 year , The online education industry is back to basics , It's clear who to learn from “ Back to the essence of education ” Development strategy of , It weakens Marketing , Invest in the construction of famous teachers 、 Standardized curriculum development and online education technology development , Do what education should do .
3、 Who to learn from is the most efficient in the online education industry “ Magic ” The company . It took only three years to become an online education platform , The key lies in who to learn from and who to take the lead in operating efficiency . What many people don't know , Who to learn from 2018 Became the first profitable online education company in . In the past two years, it has been involved in the market war, and sustained investment and strategic losses , But after occupying the head position , Is actively slowing down the pace of expansion , Avoid meaningless losses .2020 The net operating cash flow of the whole year reached 6.03 One hundred million yuan , end 2020 year 12 month 31 Japan , Its cash balance , Including cash and cash equivalents , Short term investment and long-term investment , Total RMB 82.2 One hundred million yuan , Than 2019 At the end of 27.4 More than 100 million yuan . Following this trend , It is likely to return to profitability in the next two years .
Education is “ slow ” market ,“ slow ” The market must be efficiency first . Post epidemic Era ,“ House economy ” Dividend disappears , At the same time, the possible new policies are full of uncertainty , Online education has entered the stage of intensive cultivation ,“ Operational efficiency is paramount ” It is more important , Including marketing efficiency 、 Organizational efficiency 、 Operational efficiency 、 Marketing efficiency 、 Capital efficiency and R & D efficiency , It's a barrier to learn from .
4、 Who to learn from is the most important part of online education classroom “ Magic ” The company .B Station and other platforms have a lot to learn from the teacher “ Magic ” video , Like the idea “ Ignite interest ” equally , Learning from who is not an organization that simply helps users achieve the utilitarian goal of improving their scores , It's about inspiring users to learn 、 Cultivate the learning habits of users , Train users to learn thinking . On the one hand, it depends on the strategy of famous teachers , Learn from who SAM、 Han Yu 、 Li Xu 、 Tang Jing et al “ magic ” Sex Teacher , They make education less boring , Make students more interested , Make the class more active ; On the other hand, it relies on well-developed curriculum products , Using the spirit of craftsman to build magic classroom , Assisted by technology , Improve students' learning effect 、 Parents' management efficiency and teachers' teaching efficiency .2020 Who did you learn from in the whole year? The R & D cost reached 7.35 RMB 100 million , Year-on-year growth 246.1%, The growth rate of R & D investment is far higher than that of revenue .
5、 Who to learn from is the most important concept of online education industry “ Magic ” The company , A tradition with a traditional educational background , There are also private traffic teams with internet background . Unlike most founders of online education companies, who came from the technology industry , Chen Xiangdong was born in the education industry , Do education for decades , Have a deep understanding of Education , He has a point of view ：“ Education should be slow , It should be full of love , Quality 、 Respected 、 Sustainable . Education competition is by no means a simple scale expansion , It should be a good teacher 、 Good teaching 、 Good service 、 Good effect and good reputation .” The essence of education is to ignite interest 、 Cultivate habits and shape personality , This is exactly the educational idea learned from who , It adheres to “ Technology makes education better ” The mission of , The vision is “ Become a respectable educational institution ”. On the whole, it's very difficult to learn from someone “ education ” Educational institutions of , To be unique among all the organizations .
6、 Who are the founders of online education “ Magic ” The company .
Chen Xiangdong is a doctor of economics from Renmin University of China , Alumni of Harvard Business School , Part time jobs in several universities 、 Visiting professor . I started my own business after many years in New Oriental . Chen Xiangdong's background in the education industry makes him pay more attention to lifelong learning , More able to influence others . According to media reports , Chen Xiangdong only sleeps four or five hours a day , Read a lot of books , Even read almost all the books related to Huawei Management , At the same time, he communicates with the management team and employees every day , Will carry out systematic management and corporate culture training for the management .
In an internal letter , Chen Xiangdong said “ The rise and fall of stocks will certainly affect the current income of some small partners in the short term , Because part of the compensation package of some small partners is stocks . ad locum , I give these little friends a reassurance ： We will give the minimum commitment of the stock part of the small partners with stocks in the compensation package in the next two years , Make sure the partners are at ease 、 Stability and confidence .” Few founders are so “ Sincerity ”, When stocks fall, employees are guaranteed . Maybe it's such sincerity , And proper management means and corporate culture , Let's learn from who to have the industry-leading operational efficiency , And strong competitiveness .
Chen Xiangdong is a bit like Zhang Wuji in the story of killing the Dragon by relying on heaven , From Wudang （ New Oriental ）—— Devil economics Fu Ning compares the good future to Shaolin ,VIPKID Compared to Emei , Homework help and ape guidance are Kunlun school . He suffered from cold and poison for seven years （ Cultivate the education industry ）, I'm going to learn the best martial arts （ Accumulate educational cognition and resources ）, Fight against the bright summit （ Make online education profitable ）, Defeat the top six sects , World War I became famous in the world （ The online education industry is catching up ）. Chen Xiangdong has been in the education industry for many years , Who should we learn from C Duan became famous in three years , Refresh people's understanding , Even more, it has repeatedly defeated foreign shorting institutions . And he did O2O That experience , It's like Zhang Wuji's three-year study of Tai Chi behind closed doors , After I came out, my martial arts improved , Transformation of live online classes , And suddenly it's profitable （ Defeat countless people in the Jianghu ）.
At the end ：
You can see , Who do you want to learn from “ Magic ” The company , It's because of being independent , The idea of not being lost in the public 、 play 、 Birth 、 Experience and ability , Let it go a different way in a number of online education companies . No matter how volatile the capital markets are , You can still stand still . Chen Xiangdong asked the staff to pay attention to who they should learn from ：“ Every small partner can create customer value crazily , Can our little friends grow and grow crazily , Can our little friends be more kind 、 More real 、 More sunshine 、 More empty cup mentality 、 More self critical 、 It's more able to have big scenes .” That is, regardless of market turbulence , Everyone is good at themselves , Learn from who to be yourself . Learning from someone is worth investing in , Time will give the answer .
The online education thing , If the path is right , The inclusion of educational resources , The promotion of educational efficiency , The promotion of educational innovation , It's a predictable outcome . Online education is the direction of the tide , Very valuable in the long run , Different from special industries such as e-cigarettes , The impact of policy on online education should be positive , It will only make the industry more standardized , Development is more stable , The road ahead is wider . policy , It shouldn't be a reason for investors to worry .