Short video: the two giants are in a rush IPO, Capital cheers , In recent years, the fastest-growing Internet companies are going to release dividends ！ Enterprises are looking forward to tens of thousands of people's wealth making game , The outside is also waiting for new ideas 、 Cash out of original shares 、 Capital madness doubled overnight .
All flowers and brocade , But can the two giants of short video really hold up such grand expectations inside and outside ？ Under the fire , Often it is huge bubbles and false prosperity. .
10 End of month , The byte beating has been reported tiktok's business in Hongkong. , There are even people familiar with the matter , Goldman Sachs and other investment banks have been communicating with byte jump about underwriting matters .11 month 5 Japan , The Kwai TSU submitted the prospectus directly to the HKEx. , Target valuation 500 Billion dollars .
The prospectus shows , Kwai's cash liquidation is mainly live broadcast. 、 Online marketing services （ Mainly advertising ）、 Three mature Internet realization modes of e-commerce , Almost the same as the realizable path of tiktok. .
But that doesn't mean absolute security , After detailed decomposition of Kwai Fu prospectus and all kinds of publicly available data, , The author found that , Under the “ Short video giant ” Kwai's fast hand , Still, it can only be called a large size YY, It is not mentioned in the same breath as the tiktok of the multiple realizable paths. .
As far as the current situation is concerned , The Kwai is moving vigorously. “ Tiktok ” The transformation of , But it has fallen into the decline of user value , cost 、 Receive visitors 、 Revenue irreconcilable multiple losses .
Don't talk much , This article will start Kwai to cash in. , For everyone to Kwai up to cater to the taste of capital market and investor demand for listing. , The realization and transfiguration .
01 Shout loudly Short video Make money by “YY”
Tiktok: look at all these years, everyone has regarded Kwai Fu as a short video giant with the same name as the jitter. , In fact, it was not long since it was born , The Kwai has chosen one. YY The realization path of live broadcast .
Born in 2011 year 3 Kwai's fast hand , First call “GIF Well quickly ”, It's a production GIF Mobile app for pictures . As a tool product , All Kwai's production is distributed on micro-blog. . Due to the fierce competition of tool products and the difficulty of realization , Kwai Tai vigorously promotes product transformation from tool to community , Gradually joined in “ Find out ”、“ Same city ”、“ Focus on ” Social functions such as .
But the Kwai Fu of the transformational community did not immediately fire up. , until YY Gave it “ Take over ” The opportunity of ……
As PC The biggest killer of Pan entertainment live broadcast ,YY It has attracted a large number of distinctive anchors , Old fellow iron , There is a beautiful sister , Yes “ Amazing people ”, At the same time, it also attracted a large number of gold owners .
These anchors are from PC The era of transition to mobile Internet has fallen into collective confusion , Because gold owners are beginning to spend a lot of time on mobile phones , There are fewer and fewer opportunities to watch live computer awards . And then , There is no such mobile terminal yet YY They can use their products , Keep the former gold owners , Until the fast man Kwai the burden. .
cater to B The transformation needs and C Demand of mobile live broadcast viewing of end users , The Kwai's community based live atmosphere attracted the attention of the anchor. . Especially Kwai Fu has been implementing all along. “ Light content , Great talent ” The operation mechanism of , It's attractive YY China and Israel “MC Providence ” For the representative of a number of online celebrities to join , They will, too YY Grass roots 、 Arrogance 、 Old fellow iron “ Earthy taste ” The cultural atmosphere is rooted in Kwai Chung. .
By absorption YY The anchor resources of , On the one hand, the Kwai has never been able to get rid of the dilemma of relying on the anchor. , To this day, there are still “ Simba ” And so on the family firmly suppress the platform ; On the other hand , Kwai has also been on the road to dependence. YY The way to realize live broadcast .
Kwai's long term content distribution logic also determines its final realization. . According to Mars Marketing Research Institute , Because of the content distribution , Kwai Fu gives social attention more weight. , A new video , The probability of fans seeing it is 30% To 40% Even higher . Kwai master fans are more emotional to daring people. , Tiktok , Kwai master is easier to do private area traffic precipitation. 、 Fans are more valuable . This leads to , Kwai has formed a product flow distribution with a significantly stronger private domain traffic than public domain traffic. .
What does strong private domain traffic mean to people who are online celebrities ？ There's a lot of stickiness between them and their fans , Therefore, they are more willing to choose the direct realization mode of intimate interaction such as live broadcast reward , But they are not willing to choose the advertising indirect realization mode which affects the fans' experience and precipitation .
And weak public domain traffic , Then the advertising traffic that the platform can realize is limited to a small scope , It is difficult to realize stable realization of advertising . It can be said that , Recommender system that has helped fast hands to attract large numbers of anchor and Kwai hung resources. , Kwai has made quick hands. , It also limits it .
Oriental Securities Research Report shows that , Tiktok video content consumption experience is significantly weaker than Kwai. , But the emotional connection between master Kwai users and daring people is more closely related. , So the proportion of Kwai live users watching live is bigger. 、 Longer duration .
From the data comparison , During the Spring Festival this year , The average daily time of tiktok live and live broadcast users is respectively 129 Minutes with 89 minute , And the Kwai Fu is 120 Minutes and 52 minute , We can see that Kwai users have more preferences for live broadcasting. .
In recent years, Kwai's earnings have been proved from a factual perspective. , Kwai's performance has been seriously affected by live streaming. “ Addiction ”.
The prospectus shows ,2017 year 、2018 year 、2019 Years and 2020 In the first half of , The percentage of Kwai live revenue in total revenue is at the same time. 95.3%、91.7%、80.4% and 68.5%.
Until the first half of this year , Kwai's dependence on live broadcast is below 80% for the first time. . so to speak , No live broadcast, no Kwai. . From product to content , From operation to user , Kwai is a product that is live by live broadcast. .
Don't rush to think that Kwai has found another growth curve. . As described below , Kwai's direct revenue has fallen in total revenue. , It's not because other liquidity channels are excellent , It's because the revenue growth of live broadcasting is not moving , Other cashing channels have been forced up under the complaints of the soaring marketing expenses in successive years .
There are data to prove it , Kwai's live broadcast income is at the same time. 79 One hundred million yuan 、186 One hundred million yuan 、314 Million dollars 173 One hundred million yuan . You can see that Kwai has been in successive years. “ Doubling ” Growing live broadcast revenue ,2020 The first half of the year was almost at a standstill .
02 Kwai live broadcast ： Growth stall Users are no longer local tyrants
Live broadcast business in broad daylight , It's like a live tuba YY The appearance of , But what Kwai has been trying to distance himself from the live broadcast? , What about putting yourself on a short video ？
The reason is simple and crude ,YY Such a live story , The capital market is no longer optimistic . With YY For example ,YY The current market value of U.S. stocks is 69 Billion dollars , The price earnings ratio given by the capital market has just passed 5; Take a look at another live broadcast of the main business of listed companies Momo , The current market value is 32 Billion dollars , P / E ratio is less than 8, The share price has fallen to near 5 Year low ; There are worse ones , Yingke, a live broadcasting company listed in Hong Kong stock market , At present, the market value is close 24 Over HK $100 million , The stock price has been falling since it was listed , The current share price is only per share 1.2 Hong Kong dollars , Almost reduced to “ Penny stocks ”.
Facing such a bleak live broadcasting industry , Kwai is naturally avoided. , Eager to put oneself and YY Model clear relationship .
Look at the situation of Kwai's live broadcasting business again. . Kwai's live broadcasting business is still growing in recent years. , But its growth rate has plummeted , Stall condition . from 2017 - 2019 year , Kwai's live broadcasting business grew by year on year. 135%、69%;2020 The year-on-year growth rate in the first half of the year further declined , Down to 17%; It's even scarier 2020 In the first half of , Kwai live broadcast business growth is only the ring growth rate 4%.
Main reasons for the growth stall of live broadcast industry , It's not the loss of live users , Nouveau riche, but the Kwai Fu, who has attracted the most money, is no longer a local tyrant. .?
2017 year 、2018 Years and 2019 The average monthly paid live users of Kwai live broadcast are respectively 1260 ten thousand people 、2830 ten thousand people 、4890 ten thousand people ,2020 In the first half of this year, it even increased to 6400 ten thousand people . However, the simple increase in the number of users is of little value for live broadcasting , Kwai live broadcast has fallen into the Income Trap of increments without increasing revenue. .
The willingness of users to play Kwai Fu has dropped dramatically. .2017 year 、2018 Years and 2019 Average monthly income of Kwai live broadcast monthly users is respectively 52.5 element 、54.9 element 、53.6 element ,2020 In the first half of this year, this average income fell directly to 45.2 element .
This golden Kwai old fellow is obviously no longer a good old iron. , Don't talk about military morality , Even cut it “50 No Kwai. ”.
The slowdown of the main business growth is the biggest crisis for the listed companies which have been burning money for a long time , This basically declares the company “ Grown old ”.
however , In his prospectus, Kwai is still trying to make some hope for his main business. . Its prospectus quoted iResearch's forecast ,2019 The scale of China's live broadcast reward market reached 1400 One hundred million yuan , expect 2025 The years will reach 4166 One hundred million yuan , Compound annual growth rate 19.9%.
But the bleak reality of live broadcasting industry , This unreliable prediction has been slapped in the face . from 2020 Beginning of the year ,YY The number of paid users for live broadcasting fell for two consecutive quarters , predecessors YY Chose to sell live assets in fancy style ; Mo Mo, a former star company in the live broadcasting industry, has a harder time , From the first quarter of this year , Momo live broadcast business revenue for two consecutive quarters, a double-digit year-on-year decline , Respectively reached 13% and 16%, The decline of revenue of live broadcast industry accelerated , Directly led to Momo stock prices from the beginning of the year all the way down , Drop more than 50%.
This is the reality of the live broadcast industry , There is hardly any sign of industry recovery .
Facing such a bleak industry situation , It is also constrained by several rounds of investors' listing and gambling agreements , The Kwai had to choose to broadcast the stalled airplane with Kwai second plus third engines. .
03 Failed business
Previously, it relied on the rapid growth and high profit of live broadcasting business , Kwai lay for years . Watching the growth of the stalled live broadcast business is no longer expected , The Kwai has started radical and risky. “ Tiktok ” The transformation of —— All adjustments are in line with the realization of advertising .
Kwai “ Tiktok ” The most remarkable .2020 year 9 month , Kwai Fu 8.0 edition , The Kwai is on the product interface. “ selected ” The content gives the most important display position ： Top three of home page tab It's cancelled “ Same city ”, Turn into “ selected ”; And new “ selected ” Pages are no longer Kwai Fu consistent double row form. , Instead, it is a tiktok style consistent single row flow. .
From the point of view of product form , Kwai come up. “ selected ” Tiktok “ recommend ” page , The interface similarity is high . Behind this , Kwai is a quick recommendation mechanism. “ Tiktok ”.
Oriental Securities research also said , After the adjustment , Tiktok's product design is highly similar to that of Kwai. , Give more exposure to head content . Newly added “ selected ” The contents of the page display include ： Selected content recommended by the system 、 City content 、 Content of people concerned 、 live broadcast 、 Information flow advertising . comparison “ Find out ” page ,“ selected ” The content of the page is more exquisite ; Besides , It will be displayed under the videos related to hot topics “ Hotspot bar ”, Click to enter to see Kwai Chi. 50 Hot topics related content .
In short ,“ selected ” Page gives the head more exposure to quality content , It is speculated that the algorithm recommendation mechanism begins to tilt the head of high-quality content .
Changes in the function of this product , It reflects the Kwai Fu's insisting on it. “ real ”slogan、“ Inclusive justice ” Content distribution recommendation logic 、 The thorough abandonment of the values of grass root culture .
At the user level , The Kwai is also cutting the original mass culture. , Attract multiple users from multiple channels , Gradually dilute the old fellow iron. 、 Local tyrants 、 Grass roots and other pronouns in the North 、 Sinking user groups . In recent years , Kwai's radical promotion and advertising drainage strategy , Cooperate with automobile 、 Real estate 、 game 、 Adding health and other contents , Tiktok also Kwai quickly on users. .
QM data display , Tiktok users and Kwai users overlap rate from 2017 Year of 7.1% Upgrade to 2020 Year of 50.2%, Tiktok users almost overlap with Kwai users. .
Under the double pressure of good listing financial data required by investors and the growth stall of its main business , Kwai to abandon the original product tonal 、 At the cost of values and user experience , Tiktok , Tiktok is intended to keep track of mature advertising advertising. .
Kwai Fu's internal staff have expressed their pulse. ,“2018 Years ago , The Kwai tiktok team has no sense of shaking. , I can't understand it. I can't look up to it , We think that Shukuai is totally two different products , Kwai Chung, tiktok, voice, fast and steady, no shake. ; And by the 2020 year , The Kwai tiktok is a initiative Embrace from top to bottom. , After several rounds of alignment .”
But from the current results , Tiktok's radical shake strategy has been completely Kwai ed. . There are problems in this respect , Again, the number of users has increased ,“ quality ” But there was a decline , But the quantity growth is forced by the promotion cost which grows more fiercely .
Public data display ,2017 year 、2018 year 、2019 The annual advertising revenue for Kwai Fu was 3.9 One hundred million yuan 、16.6 One hundred million yuan 、74.2 One hundred million yuan .2019 The first half of the year and 2020 In the first half of the year 22.2 Million dollars 71.6 One hundred million yuan .
2017 year 、2018 year 、2019 The monthly mobile users of the year are Kwai Fu. 1.36 Billion 、2.41 Billion 、3.3 Billion ,2019 The first half of the year and 2020 In the first half of this year, they were 2.95 Eva 4.85 Billion .
Based on this calculation , Average user income per Kwai （ARUP） stay 2017 year 、2018 year 、2019 Years respectively 2.87 element 、6.88 element 、22.48 element , Get into 2020 In the first half of , Kwai, the average advertising revenue per user suddenly dropped to 14.76 element .
in other words , In such a radical product and user strategy , Kwai did indeed get a substantial increase in the number of users and advertising revenue. , But in this year, it is facing the serious problem of the decline of user advertising value .
as everyone knows , For the traffic platform selling advertising , Its average user income index （ARUP） It represents the user traffic value of a platform .ARUP A sharp decline , Under the Kwai's radical adjustment strategy. , The advertising value of its single user has declined , Advertisers believe that the effect of Kwai Chai advertising is not so much. .
Further analysis of the average income of fast Kwai live users in recent years , There is no increase in live broadcast business . The intention is to expand the radical shake of the second tiktok engine of advertising. , It backfired , Not only did the Kwai Chung users lose loyalty and their willingness to pay for the live broadcast business, , Even affected the realization value of its forced advertising business , Advertisers doubt Kwai Tat's tonal and user attributes. .
Radical and risky tiktok strategy fails , It is not only reflected in the reduction of single user value , Also reflected in the crazy investment in the promotion of advertising costs and extremely mismatched revenue growth .
Prospectus display , Well quickly 2017 year 、2018 year 、2019 Year of “ Promotion and advertising expenditure ” They are 12.6 One hundred million yuan 、40.8 One hundred million yuan 、94.2 One hundred million yuan , What are the synchronous growth rates 224% and 131%.2020 In the first half of this year, it increased sharply year on year 364.69%.
Substantial increase in promotion and advertising costs , Does it bring matching or even higher revenue growth ？ The answer is quite the opposite .2017 year 、2018 year 、2019 The Kwai's revenue was 83 One hundred million yuan 、203 One hundred million yuan 、391 One hundred million yuan , The growth rates are 145% and 93%.2020 Kwai's revenue in the first half of 2014 253 One hundred million yuan , Year on year growth only 48%.
Specific to the tiktok advertising mode. , Kwai's advertising revenue has risen sharply. , But still far less than expected . The interface has been reported that , Su Hua first proposed 2019 The annual revenue target of Kwai's advertising business is 100 One hundred million yuan , But half a year later 2019 year 7 month , Advertising revenue target has been increased to 150 One hundred million yuan . result ,2019 The advertising revenue of Kwai Chi is only for the year. 74.2 One hundred million yuan , Not even half of Suhua's income target has been met .
The sharp increase of promotion and advertising cost , What brought is a cliff like decline in revenue growth , Naked shows the fast growth of Kwai Chung's fast growth. . At this time, the Kwai Tat should not only respond to the overall decline of the main business live broadcasting industry. , It also faces the current situation of radical tiktok transformation strategy that has not worked. .
Kwai once wanted to pass. 2020 Spring Festival Gala , Return to the track of rapid growth of users , Tiktok fighting the sound of shaking .
But it's clear that the results are very different , The prospectus clearly mentions that Kwai is currently living. 2.58 Billion , And the quick work products including small programs are Kwai Fu. 3.02 Billion . That is to say, after another six months , Put all sorts of things together to make the Kwai Fu live faster. 3 Billion live 2019 Year end target .
The well quickly “ Tiktok ” The business was a complete failure ！
04 Far away from e-commerce
Public data display , Short video tiktok in China 2019 Annual revenue is 500 One hundred million yuan , Its realization mode is mainly “ advertisement 、 Live broadcast and e-commerce ” Three ways （ Kwai is the same as fast hand. ）, Advertising revenue 200 More than one hundred million yuan ; Live broadcast revenue 200 More than one hundred million yuan ; E-commerce and other revenue 100 Billion yuan .
And how much is the Kwai Chung electricity supplier and other revenue? ？2.59 One hundred million yuan ！ Proportion of total revenue in the company 0.6%, It's tiktok's revenue. 3% Not even . here we are 2020 In the first half of , How much is Kwai's e-commerce business income? ？8.09 One hundred million yuan ！ It's more than three times the total revenue of e-commerce last year , But in the company's overall revenue share is still only 3.2%.
You may have to ask , Now it's time to bring goods live , The anchors make a lot of money , How to live Kwai made a quick hand , Why didn't you even taste gold in this store ？
Actually , Kwai electric supplier has been very strong with goods. , Basically, it is the second place of domestic e-commerce platform with goods .2018 The fast Kwai deal GMV by 9660 Ten thousand yuan ,2019 This figure was reached in 596 One hundred million yuan ,2020 In the first half of , Quick Kwai deal GMV That's it 1096 One hundred million yuan .
Obviously, the problem does not appear to be Kwai Chung. . Here we need to introduce a concept, which is the monetization rate of e-commerce transactions （ Monetization rate of e-commerce transactions = Business income of e-commerce business / E-commerce transactions GMV）, For e-commerce companies such as Alibaba , The monetization of e-commerce transactions is through advertising promotion fees 、 Trading Commission 、 Store fees to realize the realization of cash .
Kwai's electricity supplier income is so low. , The main problem is that the monetization rate of its e-commerce transactions is extremely low .2020 In the first half of , Well quickly “ E-commerce and others ” Income for 8.09 One hundred million yuan , Its GMV by 1096 One hundred million yuan , That is to say, Kwai Chung electricity trading monetization rate is only 0.74%. Contrast with , What is the monetization rate of Ali retail platform 3.9%, The monetization rate of tmall 5-6%, And pinduoduo is 2.9%. These are far above Kwai Fu. .
in other words , Although Kwai Tai has been inserted into the e-commerce industry chain through live broadcast , But it did not enter the core profit business , Can only eat the thinnest leftovers . Internet industry analyst Pei Pei once analyzed that ,“ In the industrial chain of live E-commerce , Net red and MCN Make money , Trading platforms are also making money , But the live platform is not making much money . With the hottest clothes 、 Beauty category as an example , If the combined monetization rate of a commodity is 20%, Live broadcast platforms may only be allocated 3-5%; Although the live platform provides traffic and scenarios , It's the one that earns the least ”.
The market may eventually need to accept one fact , Live e-commerce itself is not a very profitable business , Unless you control the entire trading loop （ Ali 、 JD.COM 、 A lot of spelling ）. Strong as Kwai 、 Tiktok , With such a huge amount of traffic , It has reached a huge amount of e-commerce transactions , It turned out to be just eating “ Leftovers ”.
Of course , Some analysts also pointed out that , Kwai Chung's electricity supplier may not all be included in other income. , And a part of it is included in online marketing services .
Even so , Nor can we help to solve Kwai Chung's current liquidity dilemma. , because 2020 In the first half of the year, Kwai's online marketing service was also no more than 71.6 One hundred million yuan , The more e-commerce business is included in the online marketing service , It means that the lower the pure advertising revenue is , It also represents the lower the advertising value of Kwai Kong users. .
Make up anyway , Kwai tiktok YY The realization mode can not be covered ; In any case, there's a big shift in data and text , Well quickly “ high-cost , Low growth rate ” The transformation of drinking poison to quench thirst is also difficult to sustain .
Think of short in muddy water YY, Direct to the domestic live mode data fraud is serious , The protagonist of this article, tuba YY—— How much dry cargo do you have for Kwai live data? ？ There are no surveys and no data , Let's not judge for the time being .
After Kwai Ming liquidation mode is broken down, it is clear. , The author has the opportunity to make reasonable valuation analysis on Kwai Chung on this basis. , Look at it 500 Is the target valuation of US $100 million worth , Meet the needs of eager investors and gourd eaters .
* The pictures in this article are all from the Internet
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