Thepaper.cn reporter Tian Zhongfang
A Stock recovery trend continues .
By 11 month 20 Closed yesterday , Shanghai composite index up 0.44%, newspaper 3377.73 spot ; kechuang 50 Index fell 0.36%, newspaper 1430.72 spot ; Shenzhen component index rose 0.54%, newspaper 13852.42 spot ; Growth enterprise market is up 0.83%, newspaper 2667.09 spot .
Looking ahead , Where will the market go ？
The surging news gathered 10 The view of securities companies , Most brokers think , In the context of economic recovery ,A Stocks in the fundamentals expected to continue to improve and other factors resonance , The bottom line will continue to rise . meanwhile , The case risk of credit brings limited disturbance .
configuration , It has become the consensus of all institutions to increase the position of cyclical stocks . Some brokers point out that , For the current cyclical industry , The important question is not whether it should be equipped or not , It's a question of how much to allocate . It is worth mentioning that , Historical market characteristics show that , The first wave of cycle stocks is worth participating in , This round of market may continue until 2021 Mid year . Besides , After valuation switching , Financial real estate and other undervalued sectors , It is not ruled out that there will be a significant pull-up near the end of the year .
Citic securities, ： Increase Pro cyclical configuration
Looking ahead ,A Stocks are in a slow period of rotation , Multifactor resonance will continue to improve fundamental expectations , Raise the bottom line of the market . meanwhile , The case risk of credit brings limited disturbance .
The specific term , First , Under multi factor resonance , Market expectations for economic recovery will continue to strengthen . Overseas vaccine R & D has been reported frequently , It is expected that after the vaccination program is implemented , In the second quarter of next year, the European and American economy is expected to move from an unbalanced recovery to a comprehensive recovery . The uncertainty of the US general election has been basically eliminated , Weak dollar 、 infrastructure 、 Inflation expectations and other key words “ Biden deal ” It's still going on .A Stock fundamentals continue to improve , The industry cycle with high elasticity of profit growth and optional consumption plate are attractive . secondly , The supply and logistics recovery of this round of recovery lags behind demand . The impact of the epidemic has brought about a synchronous contraction of supply and demand , Rather than demand contraction in a typical business cycle , Once demand stabilizes and picks up , The economy may enter the active replenishment stage soon . Under the constraints of supply and logistics recovery lag , At the beginning of replenishment, the price elasticity of periodic products is larger . Last , The case risk of credit in this bond market will strengthen credit stratification , But it won't lead to a rapid contraction of domestic credit , And it won't change the trend of internal and external fundamental restoration , Yes A The impact of stocks is limited .
configuration ,10 After the month broke ,11 month A Stocks have entered a rotation period of slow rise , And the procyclical plate is the most important leading line in the period , Market consensus will continue to strengthen .
therefore , Investors are advised to focus on cyclical products and alternative consumer sectors , Continue to strengthen the configuration of procyclical varieties . For example, nonferrous metals benefited from the weak US dollar and the expected improvement in the global economy , Such as copper 、 aluminum 、 lithium ; Chemical fiber in the chemical industry plate ; Optional consumer appliances 、 automobile 、 Liquor and Spirits 、 Home Furnishing 、 The hotel 、 Scenic spots, etc .
China international capital corporation ： Style balance continues
In the near future , Several companies have made positive progress in vaccine development , The market is constantly adjusting expectations for the progress of global economic recovery , In the promotion of vaccine progress 、 In the upward cycle of economic recovery , More damage during the outbreak 、 Industries with slower recovery are expected to catch up with , Pro cyclical related industries are also expected to benefit , And growth industries with higher valuations are likely to adjust .
configuration , After the new economy has already led a big rise ,“ New and old are more balanced ” Strategy the current environment is still applicable , Follow on investors can focus on growth recovery and policy exit rhythm .
Citic built for ： Equilibrium oscillations continue , Resource stocks dominate
Looking ahead , In the context of economic recovery , It is suggested that investors should pay attention to the tightening effect brought by the normalization of monetary policy . however , The credit risk of bond market is rising , Will suppress the level of risk appetite . therefore , The market will remain volatile , Investors need to guard against risks .
configuration , In the current economic situation , Undervalued and cash flow rich varieties will dominate , Especially with the global economic recovery of resource stocks , Such as petrochemical industry chain 、 Nonferrous metal industry chain, etc . But in the long run , The science and technology and consumption of economic transformation and upgrading have the ability of sustained growth , After waiting for the market to adjust, it can be rearranged .
Everbright securities ： In the recovery trend, grasp the main line of Pro cyclical
The fundamentals , The National Bureau of Statistics announced 10 Domestic production in May 、 investment 、 Consumption data , The above data further reflect the domestic economic recovery trend . In terms of industrial production , Still expected to maintain a high growth rate . In terms of investment data , The growth rate of domestic fixed assets investment continued to rise steadily , Although the cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment has narrowed , But it's still in the negative range , The growth rate of real estate development remains at a high level , The growth rate of infrastructure investment has increased . In terms of consumption ,10 In June, the growth rate of domestic social consumption further picked up .
Looking ahead , With the development of vaccines, the good news keeps coming , Further boost market confidence . next step , Investors need to focus on future domestic monetary policy 、 The trend of credit policy .
Configuration , It is suggested that investors grasp the following two main lines of investment ： First, focus on the pro cyclical plate , On the one hand, we should pay attention to the infrastructure industry chain which has entered the recovery cycle , Such as light industry 、 chemical 、 Building material 、 mechanical 、 colored , On the other hand, we should pay attention to the banks and transportation that will soon come out of the industry trough . Second, continue to focus on cars 、 Household appliances and other sectors that have entered the boom upward cycle .
China merchants securities ： The pro cyclical undervalue style will dominate
Looking ahead , Corporate profits are accelerating to improve , Or promote A Stock valuation level in the short and medium term has a certain adjustment .A Stocks are still in a typical recovery period , It is characterized by fundamental driving , Early release of credit 、 Real estate investment keeps supply high , Consumption and export growth continued to pick up , So the economy could still go up faster than expected .
configuration , The economy continues to improve and overseas demand recovers , In the short term, there is room for valuation and repair in the upstream resource plate , Especially steel 、 Mining and other plates . meanwhile , Since the second quarter , The profits and valuations of the midstream manufacturing industry have improved significantly , New progress in vaccine development for aviation 、 The profits and valuations of subdivisions such as airports have greatly boosted . therefore , It is estimated that in the short term, alternative consumption and travel consumption are estimated , There is room for improvement .
therefore , The pro cyclical undervalue style will still dominate in the future , Investors can focus on three main lines ： One is the opportunity of cyclical plate brought by rising commodity prices , Such as chemical industry 、 colored 、 coal ; The second is the opportunity of optional consumption brought by the improvement of export , Such as home appliances 、 Home Furnishing 、 Auto parts, etc ; The third is the acceleration of the introduction of vaccines , Travel consumption is expected to improve significantly , Focus on Aviation 、 transport 、 The airport 、 Hotel, etc . Besides , After considering the valuation switch , Financial and real estate sector valuations are near record lows , It is not ruled out that there has been an obvious uplift at the end of recent years .
BOC securities ： Add period
Looking ahead , For the current cyclical industry , The important question is not whether it should be equipped or not , It's a question of how much to allocate .
The specific term , One side , The market is systematically underestimating , The extent and sustainability of industry profitability . On the other hand , Considering that the current investors are quite different from the cyclical market , Industry level recommendation is more about short and short , So from the perspective of investment sentiment , Cyclical industries also have large positive expectations .
therefore , Considering this short-term recovery , Strong momentum in industry fundamentals and subsequent Biden's election 、 The US fiscal stimulus has been implemented 、 The commercialization of vaccines and other value catalysts conducive to the cycle have been launched in succession , The current time point should firmly continue to add the cyclical plate , And as the preferred style for next year's configuration .
Societe Generale Securities ： The recovery is getting better
Looking ahead ,A Stock recovery, the market is getting better . As the global economic recovery accelerates , Global bulk prices hit new highs , Demand recovery accelerates response . meanwhile , The recovery of Europe and America ,RCEP a , China is a big manufacturing country 、 Under the supply advantage of manufacturing power , Exports continue to exceed expectations .
configuration , We can focus on economic recovery, export chain 、 Under the impact of credit debt, there are two main lines to allocate undervalued stocks . One side , We can focus on the chemical industry 、 Industrial metals 、 Machinery and equipment 、 Textile chain 、 Home appliance 、 light industry 、 Transportation and other industries with economic recovery and export advantages ; On the other hand , In the short term, due to the impact of credit default and tight funds , Pay attention to some companies with good quality 、 Undervalues with high matching between valuation and asset quality 、 Dividends 、 Value stock allocation opportunities . Besides , With the economic echelon recovery , Investors can focus on 2020 Years of damage ,2021 The direction of the service industry benefited in , Such as finance 、 aviation 、 Art Performance 、 The hotel 、 Medical beauty, etc .
Ping An Securities ：A Stocks or still range volatility
Looking ahead , In the context of the current uncertainty gradually landing , Market risk appetite still has support . however , Liquidity keeps a tight balance , So it still remains A The view of range volatility in the stock market remains unchanged .
Besides , The default of credit debt has aroused regulatory concern , Regulation releases the signal to increase the prevention of financial risks . But on the whole , A default on a credit obligation is to A Stock market influence is limited , After the occurrence of a cross default event A The stock market has not received a significant impact .
configuration , In the context of expected enhancement of vaccine landing , The cyclical plate is still relatively strong . Investors are advised to focus on cyclical industries with relatively low valuations in the short term , We can also pay close attention to some stocks in the technology industry that have entered the stage of valuation adjustment .
New era securities ： Cycle stocks start
Looking ahead , Cycle stocks will drive the index into a new big level market .
The specific term , As the epidemic progresses through the most dangerous period , The economy may continue to exceed expectations . Cycle stocks will show Davis double click , Driving the index into a new rise . At the financial level , Public funds are still hot , Usually from the end of the year to the next spring , Capital activity will rise further , It's going to be an important force for the index to go up .
configuration , One side , There has been a big adjustment in consumption and technology recently , Indicates that the market style has changed , At least one quarter in time , It may even last until 2021 In the middle of . On the other hand , Cycle stock historical market characteristics show that , The first wave of cycle stocks is worth participating in , The market is expected to continue until 2021 Mid year , Then there will be adjustments brought about by monetary tightening .2021 In the second half of , Cycle stocks may have a second wave of gains , Whether it is worth participating depends on the extent of the intermediate adjustment . It is suggested that investors focus on nonferrous metals 、 chemical 、 automobile 、 mechanical 、 brokers 、 Banks, etc .
Pacific Securities ： Focus on clockwise rotation
In the near future , There is a rapid rotation of Pro cyclical and overvalued varieties in the market , It shows obvious characteristics of procyclicality . Looking ahead , One side , As domestic and foreign economies continue to recover , The demand side continues to make efforts , The repair window of service-oriented consumption is approaching . On the other hand , Recently, with the disturbance of the epidemic situation 、 The landing of external uncertainties such as the US general election , Against the background of RMB Appreciation , Foreign investment is expected to continue to flow back A stocks . therefore , Maintaining the fundamentals and foreign investment will support A Stock up judgment .
Besides , Recently, the market is worried about the impact of credit risk on the equity market , Although the short-term market volatility may increase , But if we don't change, we'll be optimistic about it in the medium term .
configuration , Investors are advised to focus on Pro cyclical rotation , Style is balanced , Focus on the four main investment lines ： First, banks that are undervalued but have room for continuous improvement 、 insurance ; Second, chemical industry with low value and good marginal demand 、 colored 、 mechanical 、 real estate ; The third is “ Technology + Making internal circulation ” Of photovoltaic 、 New energy vehicle 、5G infrastructure 、 Cloud computing ; Fourth, “ Consumption cycle ” The car that can be consumed in China 、 Consumer electronics 、 Home appliances 、 Tourist Hotel 、 Movie theaters, etc .
editor ： It's winter
proofreading ： Zhang Liangliang