Ant group: financial "giant" or "extremely thin"
Peng you 2020-11-25 13:40:02
With Ma Yun, the actual controller of ant group, Jing Xiandong, chairman of the board, and Hu Xiaoming, President of the people's Bank of China , China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission , China Securities Regulatory Commission and State Administration of foreign exchange four departments at the same time jointly interview , It directly triggered a huge earthquake in China's financial circle .

 Ant group —— Finance “ beast ” still “ Very thin ”

Let's start by looking back at the whole story . It was first reported that ants would be on the market in 7 month 20 Japan , Then the ant seemed to be on a rocket , Shanghai Stock Exchange 8 month 25 The first application of ant group was accepted on March ,8 month 30 Japan entered the hearing stage , And in 9 month 18 It will be deliberated and approved immediately , The ant group used only 30 Time of day , I thought this ant monster would go on the market smoothly , However, the turning point is also very rapid , First of all 10 month 13 According to relevant media reports in Japan, regulators are investigating the potential conflict of interest of ant group's listing , And this potential conflict of interest refers directly to the five exclusive sales Alipay platform's innovative future fund, which is allocated to the ant group , However, due to the high-level attention to the listing of ant group , It seems that the incident is over . The real impact on the listing of ants may be due to Ma Yunyu 10 month 24 Several views expressed in his speech at the second Bund financial summit on Japan : Criticizing Basel as a club for the elderly , Point out that today's banks are still pawnbrokers , At the same time, it shows that China is not a financial systemic risk , It's the risk of a lack of a financial ecosystem . These points of view are put forward , Then there was a lot of discussion in the financial world , Then 11 month 2 He was interviewed by Ma Yunda and others on Sunday ,11 month 3 Shanghai Stock Exchange announced the decision to suspend the listing of ant science and technology innovation board , Subsequently, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange also responded to ant group's suspension H Shares of the listed . According to the relevant laws , Ant group will have to wait at least for it to go public again 6 Months later, . thus , The giant ant may be on the way to the market .

Why the listing plan of ant group has attracted so much attention , First of all, we need to understand what an ant group needs , Before going public , Ant group mechanism tries to dilute financial color , Label a technology company , Even changed its name from ant financial to ant group . What's this for ? In my opinion, it's for two things , First, according to the positioning of technology companies , Get an overvalue , If ant group is a financial company, it is absolutely impossible to be listed on the science and technology innovation board , The valuation can't be so high ; The second and most important point —— Avoid regulation , Ma Yun's speech on the Bund may be the fuse of this matter , Originally, regulators wanted to focus on training a high-tech financial company , So it provides a fast track for ants to come to the market , As a result, the actual controller said that there was no financial regulatory risk in the current environment , The regulatory response to this has also been rapid , Let you feel the strength of supervision for the first time .

 Ant group —— Finance “ beast ” still “ Very thin ”

Now that it has happened , We might as well think about it again , Why are ant financial services being increased by the regulatory layer , The most fundamental reason may be due to the asset securitization of ant financial services , Ant's asset securitization has great risks , Here's the ant , The main product of issue is debt . But where do these bonds come from , Naturally, it is the debt formed by the borrowing of Huabei . Let's enjoy the operation of ant financial's asset securitization , First of all, we can assume that ant financial services will borrow the original funds through spending 1 Lend $100 million to users through Alipay , So the ants have 1 Billion yuan of debt , And this 1 Billion yuan is the assets of ants , It can be used for financing in the market , Refinancing back 1 One hundred million yuan , Keep lending — debt financing — lending . And in the operation of details , In two ways : The first is bank loans , But we all know that bank loans are not sustainable ,1 If you take a mortgage, you may only be able to borrow it 7 Ten million , And then maybe it's just 4900 ten thousand , In the future, there will be less and less ; The second way to solve the capital problem is asset securitization , The ant's operation on this is to 1 The debt of 100 million yuan is designed as ABC Three layers ,A Layer occupied 70%, The fixed interest rate is 6.1%,B Layer occupied 25%, The interest rate is 7.5%,C Layer occupied 5%, and C Layer belongs to high risk and high return project , It is generally self digested within the group , It's buying from each other by subsidiaries , But what we need to understand is , Subsidiary companies are used to buy C We also get money from the market , Turn to the ant group and make this 1 Hundred million yuan, and then through spending and borrowing , Interest rates can reach 18%, Excluding financing interest , The revenue can reach 10% above , Then is ABC Between the guarantee problem ,C to B guarantee ,B Give again A guarantee , If there is a loan default , It was also the first to lose money C, and C And it's the least . This kind of asset securitization revolving loan can be said to be played to the extreme by ants , According to the former mayor of Chongqing , Ant gold handle 30 With a capital of more than 100 million yuan, it has lent 40 times in a few years , Total lending has reached 3000 More than one hundred million yuan , And there is a hundred times high leverage , But once there's a risk , There's so little that ant groups need to take on , Most of them are paid by investors in the market . It's impossible for regulators not to find this kind of risk , Naturally, it is increasing the risk monitoring of ant group , This time it's time to take this opportunity , The ant market is blocked , No matter how fast, we have to wait for 6 You can't apply for listing again until months later , For such a long time , It depends on how ant group and regulatory level can better communicate , How to minimize the risk .

We do not deny that ant group is a giant animal in the financial market now , But put everything behind it , The development of ants over the years is like walking on the tip of a knife , Really let this giant beast show its true shape , It may really be difficult to support such a large valuation , All in all , It still depends on how the ant group changes after going through this , How to make the market accept and believe that it can continue to grow .

 Ant group —— Finance “ beast ” still “ Very thin ”

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