Our special author Zhu Zhenkun / writing
Alibaba （09988.HK）11 month 6 It's announced today 2021 Second quarter of fiscal year （ By 9 end of the month ） The beautiful performance data of , The company's operating revenue this quarter has reached 1550.59 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 30%; The operating profit is 136.34 One hundred million yuan , fell 33%. If deducting the effect of employee equity incentive expenses in the same period of last year , The operating profit is 296.90 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 44%. Cloud computing business 、 Rookie logistics services and hungry income have relatively strong growth , The growth rate of income reached respectively 60%,73% and 29%, Cross border and global retail and wholesale business grew respectively 30% and 44%, Digital media and entertainment are growing 8%.
But this one “ Exceed expectations ” After the publication of the annual report of , But the stock price fell significantly , What are investors worried about ？
The number of users is close to “ The ceiling ”
The total number of monthly active users of the company reaches 8.81 Billion , It's increased in this quarter 700 ten thousand , It's lower than the market expected 1000 ten thousand . According to statistics , China 15-65 The population between the ages of and is about 10 Hundreds of millions of people , Internet users about 9.04 Billion , The number of active wechat monthly is about 9.54 Billion . It can be seen that , Alibaba's market share in the Chinese market has reached a very high level . With the rise of pinduoduo , Rapid development of e-commerce in sinking Market , That is, the markets in cities and towns outside the third tier , This market is called the final flow dividend .2017 Since then , New users of Alibaba 70% From the sinking market , This quarter sinking market, the slowdown in the number of users may mean that the low-level cities have also appeared bottlenecks , Maybe it's not far from the ceiling of the total number of users . According to Ali's plan ,2024 The number of active users reaches 10 Hundreds of millions of people , In the future, the average number of users will only be annually 4% Left right growth .
On user development , There is also the problem of diminishing marginal effect , That is to say, more cost can only increase fewer users . Although Alibaba users will continue to increase every year , But growth is bound to slow down . New user acquisition cost from 2018 At the beginning of the year 200 Yuan gradually increased , So far, it's more than 800 element .
Social networks and short videos account for the most user time , It also carries the most Internet traffic . Unfortunately, Ali's layout is insufficient in these two aspects . The competition with Tencent makes Ali unable to obtain the support of wechat , Obtaining external traffic resources from short video vendors , It also has to pay a considerable cost .
Over the past few years , Internal traffic distribution plays an important role in the rapid development of business , For example, Taobao. 、 Is Alipay hungry for drainage? , Contributed to takeout users 40% The incremental , Microblogging 、 Bili Bili advertising also plays an important role in drainage and transformation . But after years of digging , The space for future internal traffic growth is relatively limited .
A lot of spelling , The real shock has not yet arrived
Pinduoduo uses wechat traffic , Through cost-effective products and social shopping , Fast becoming the third largest in the industry , In just a few years, the number of active users has reached 6.83 Billion . At this rate , Pinduoduo users will soon catch up with Alibaba .
Different from the general understanding , What is the impact of pinduoduo on Ali “ First sweet, then bitter ” Of . Pinduoduo has exploited a large number of customers in the sinking market , Promote the majority of rural markets in the Internet users 、 Express logistics 、 The rapid development of infrastructure such as payment method , It cultivates the user's habit of shopping on e-commerce platform , So as to drive the growth of the entire e-commerce industry , Other e-commerce peers can be said to be beneficiaries .
As mentioned earlier , Over the past few years , Among the new customers created by Alibaba 70% From the sinking market .
But as the sinking dividend was released , After growing up, pinduoduo will inevitably impact Alibaba's basic plate . On the one hand, more customers and transactions will be diverted , On the other hand , Attract brand merchants to open stores , Provide better supply . Pinduoduo has the advantage of latecomer , Have strong innovation ability , It has been launched creatively “ Ten billion subsidies ” and “ New brand plan ”. E-commerce enterprises seeking secondary growth , This rare opportunity will not be ignored .
Alibaba has been hesitant before , Hope to compete with pinduoduo through Taobao , But it turns out , That doesn't work . After awakening, Taobao launched a special edition , Face to face competition with pinduoduo , The reaction was a little slow .
Short video e-commerce , Friend or foe ？
The example of pinduoduo shows that , Ali is not impeccable , Still likely to suffer from competitors with traffic advantages . Social network with the largest user traffic 、 video 、 Games and news , In addition to games , Others should be realized through advertising or e-commerce . Over the years, Ali has spared no effort to invest in various traffic entrances in order to obtain traffic , Like a map 、 social contact 、 information 、 video 、 Offline stores and so on , Comprehensive layout brings abundant traffic . Occupied the flow entrance , It's going to stop competitors in the future . But Kwai tiktok and the new fast rising short video platform , Huge traffic , The number of live days reached respectively 6 Eva 3 Billion . In such a rich flow and user stickiness under the blessing , The realization of short video traffic is likely to have an impact on the current e-commerce pattern .
Tiktok and Kwai have set up their own e-commerce platform. , According to their plans ,2020 year , Kwai electric providers and fast tiktok providers GMV Reach respectively 2000 Million dollars 2500 One hundred million yuan .
There are two realization paths for short video e-commerce , One is relying on advertising , Similar to Taobao and pinduoduo ; Second, cash flow through self operated e-commerce , Similar to Jingdong . The former will become Alibaba's traffic channel , The latter will become Alibaba's competitor .
The tiktok was mainly working with Taobao. , Transaction to jump Taobao based , Taobao tiktok back to trading volume for purchase traffic . And Kwai's cooperation with Jingdong is more closely. , You can buy Jingdong products directly on the Kwai Tai platform. , There is no need to jump .
2020 year 10 month , Jitter announces tiktok outside the live broadcast chain , No more diversion for third-party platforms , Guide commodities to trade in their own channels , Show the ambition to enter E-commerce . data display ,2020 During the 11th year , Tiktok live with merchandise ,96% Tiktok platform , Taobao accounts for less than 3%.
Of course , Short video e-commerce is also faced with supporting brand businesses 、 Infrastructure construction and other issues , Whether we can establish our own e-commerce ecology is still a big variable , But they must be powerful disruptors .
Community group purchase , Another new battlefield ？
In the future, Alibaba's greater imagination space comes from the offline market , But local life services and new retail businesses have not been successful .
The possible reasons are ： First, e-commerce attaches importance to online operation , But local businesses are regional , Pay attention to offline operation ; Second, it did not change the customer's perception , In the field of instant and high-frequency consumption, customers will give priority to competitors ; Third, the priority of local life is lower than that of core e-commerce business , Limited investment resources , Become the entrance of drainage line , Lead to their own basic disk is not good enough . in the final analysis , Offline and e-commerce are two types of business , It's normal for barbers to be bad cooks . Burning money is not enough , Just a lot of money , Not enough to achieve business success .
Reflected in the results , Are you hungry? They are firmly suppressed by meituan , Ali hatched the new business form of HEMA Xiansheng , And it didn't work . In addition, Ali shares in Yintai business 、 Shopping in Sanjiang 、 Lianhua Supermarket 、 Xinhuadu 、 Sun Art 、 Even home and other mature offline retail enterprises , But its role in the whole Ali ecology is not clear .
lately , Ali 、 Meituan 、 JD.COM 、 A lot of spelling 、 sound of dripping water 、 Tiktok in the layout community fresh group purchase business . Community fresh food business is a difficult business to do , First, fresh products are easy to lose , Easy to cause inventory and loss ; Second, small batch , Low gross profit , Poor distribution economy ; Third, it is difficult to standardize the quality of fresh food 、 Short time limit , As a result, online quality information can not be truly displayed .
Even so , Major e-commerce companies are still committed to increasing investment , One side , The online permeability is low , But the community market with higher repurchase can provide new growth space ; On the other hand , A new retail ecosystem is likely to emerge . Even if there's a lot of uncertainty , Head players must also participate . This may be a protracted war with a long-term slight deficit , You can observe it slowly .
Does e-commerce have scale limit ？
Alibaba is the earliest e-commerce platform in China , It has a deep moat , Compared with other head e-commerce, it has obvious advantages ： First, infrastructure , Including payment 、 Significant advantages in financial and logistics services ; Second, the number of merchants and the quality of products and businesses ; Third, the quality and diversity of users , Average annual average of each active customer GMV Obviously higher than Jingdong and pinduoduo .
Internet winners eat all , E-commerce network effect is the most obvious , Competitive users and businesses attract each other , Form an extremely large scale e-commerce platform . An interesting question is , Will the scale effect fail or be weakened ？
Such a huge Alibaba , Too many goals need to be achieved , It's easy to lose one thing or another . face 9 Million users , No one platform can satisfy such a huge customer base at the same time , Although divided into tmall 、 TaoBao 、 Juhuasuan 、 Taobao special edition, etc APP, Still difficult to accurately cover , There is some room for differentiation . Consumers in the process of decision-making , We may consider choosing differentiated products or services from other e-commerce providers . Tmall and Taobao have 30 Ten thousand users and nearly ten million merchants , Their excessive competition for traffic , Increased advertising costs , Increased costs . Consumption upgrading will increase customer price , But the interests of secondary businesses will be damaged , They've turned in large numbers to platforms like pindolo . Content satisfied 、 Personalized and customized needs , It can improve the conversion rate of single order , But some features may be solidified , So they are abandoned by other customers . Ali has always stressed the construction of ecology and coordination , Similar to nature , Internal businesses and objectives also compete for resources , Mutual restriction .
Ali's size is also its disadvantage , Too large scale makes it difficult to make timely adjustments to the rapid changes in the industry , Easily overtaken by agile companies .
Alibaba's advantage will not be lost soon , It's just in the future , Faster growth may be more difficult . Of course, the fierce competition of e-commerce is certainly a good thing , An industry can provide more quality supply , Overall cost reduction and efficiency improvement , Benefits will pass to consumers .
（ Statement ： This article only represents the author's personal views ; Author's statement ： I do not own the shares mentioned in the article ）