Facing this world's largest IPO Stop , Whether for ant group or investors , There are two things that matter most at the moment ： When will it be available ？ Is ants worth it after it's launched again 2.1 One trillion ？
According to media reports , At the ant group, it announced a moratorium A Femoral sum H Shares listed 11 month 3 On the evening of the day , Jing Xiandong, executive chairman of ant group, called the senior executives above the concentration level to hold an emergency meeting , Revealed at the meeting , Ant IPO It will take at least half a year to restart the conservative estimate .
But for ants “ Half a year ” Complete the re listing forecast within , The industry is not optimistic . Many market people believe that , There is still a lot of uncertainty in the re listing of ants , Decide on IPO The key factor in the progress from the beginning is when the new regulations on small loans will be implemented .
besides , Ant group suspended IPO after , Revaluation has almost become the consensus of the industry , How much will ant group's market value eventually shrink 、 Whether there will be cliff diving has become a major focus of attention in the industry .
The largest in the world IPO Be stranded
from IPO In terms of process , Ant group has come to the last step before listing .11 month 3 Japan , In the trading hall of Shanghai Stock Exchange , The materials of ant group have been arranged properly , The major media also began to work on ant listing .
everything , The east wind didn't blow to .
11 month 3 Sunday night , Listed on the eve of the , originally decided 11 month 5 Japanese ant group IPO It was announced by the Shanghai Stock Exchange to stop . Come back to see , During this period, whether the ant war match fund violated the rules caused a storm of public opinion , Or that led to the final suspension “ Butterfly wings ”.
8 month 25 Friday night , The Shanghai stock exchange accepted the science and Technology Innovation Board of ant group IPO apply , meanwhile , Ant group submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong stock exchange . It marks the official opening of the listing of this technology financial giant in Shanghai and Hong Kong .
Referring to SMIC's science and technology innovation board, we only use 29 God IPO Audit time , At that time, some people in the industry expected , The ant group will be in 10 month 20 It will be listed in the future .
9 month 18 Japan , Chuangkeban IPO Past meeting , And in 9 month 22 Submit registration on . here , Ant group IPO The progress is a week or so behind the original market expectations . If the registration goes well , Ant group listing time point or can catch up before the release of the new rules on small loans .
But in the submission of registration near 1 After a month , Chuangkeban IPO No new progress has been made .
Some people close to the regulator have told reporters that ,“ The Securities Regulatory Commission blocked the ants in the registration process .” however , The source did not disclose to reporters why .
But in 10 Mid month , Media reports said , Ant has been delayed due to the fund's violation of financial regulations IPO. The main focus of controversy is , As IPO Whether there is a conflict of interest between the ant group of the main body and the subsidiary company of the ant fund sales company which exclusively sells the ant war matching fund , Did ant group underwrite its own IPO.
At the time , There are securities analysts to 21 Century economic reporter pointed out , Ants in the fund sales process of the more obvious problem is , Exclusive agency cooperation is not fair enough , Not enough risk tips .
Regarding this , An ant group spokesman responded that , The listing process of ants is advancing orderly in both places , There's no preset schedule , Any speculation about the timetable has no basis in fact .
No matter what kind of trouble we've been through , The time came to 10 month 21 Japan , The Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the first registration of ant group . Now the ant's IPO Progress has been one month behind the original market expectations . therefore , The ant ran into “ Financial technology regulatory environment ” The change of .
from A In history , There are not many cases in which the payment for issuance has been stopped and the fund for subscription of new shares has been returned , except “ stock market crash ” During the period of 10 Stock only ,A There are at least three similar cases in the stock market ：2008 Ningbo Lili Electronic Co., Ltd., which was questioned about financial fraud in ;2010 Suzhou Hengjiu Optoelectronic Technology Co., Ltd., which was invalid because of the patent query ;2010 year 10 At the end of the month, shengjingshanhe, a rice wine enterprise suspected of increasing revenue falsely, was exposed .
The outcome of these cases is rather tortuous .2008 Years later, , Ningbo Lili after a series of equity transfer , Change into a Li Ang Wei , This year 9 month 11 Japan landed on the science and technology innovation board .
Suzhou is forever in 2010 year 1 month 22 Japan IPO Past meeting ,3 month 18 Japan , The regulatory authorities require verification of the termination of patent rights reported by the media , The company's shares have been put on hold .2010 year 6 month , The gem issuance audit committee has rejected Suzhou Evergrande's IPO apply . In a 6 Years later, , Suzhou always chooses “ Find another way out ”, On 2016 year 8 month 12 Japan listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's SME board .
The scenic mountains and rivers are in 2010 year 12 month 17 It's half an hour before the company's listing , Suspension of listing . The SFC's final verification report confirms that , There are problems with the disclosure of its customers and inventory in Shengjing Shanhe's prospectus ,5.8 100 million yuan of financing funds together with interest will be returned . Since then, I haven't seen the scenery of mountains and rivers IPO Public information about .
But it should be pointed out that , Most of the above cases were stopped due to financial fraud , The nature of the suspension of the ant group is very different from the above case .
Key points to restart the launch ： When will the new regulations on small loans be implemented ？
according to 11 month 3 Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that , Ant group suspended IPO One of the reasons is that the financial technology regulatory environment in which the company reports has changed and other major events .
The day before 11 month 2 Japan , People's Bank of China 、 The CBRC issued 《 Interim Measures for the administration of network small loan business （ Solicitation draft ）》, Higher index requirements are put forward for Internet small loan and joint loan business . meanwhile , The new rules also give ant groups trans provincial operations 、 The amount of the loan brings direct limits , As a result, the company's joint loans and other businesses also have an obvious capital gap .
“ As mentioned in the announcement of suspension of listing of ant group ‘ The regulatory environment for fintech has changed ’, It refers to the new rules on small loans ”, There are investment banks close to ant group listed projects said , From the point of view of the rules , After the SFC makes the registration decision and before the listing and trading of the shares , It happens like “ Regulatory environment changes ” Such a big event , The exchange also has the right to ask ant group to suspend its listing .
After the suspension, it faces the problem of restart .
“ Re listing has been delayed for about half a year ”, This is from the ant group IPO After suspending the news , Jing Xiandong convenes the internal middle and senior management to hold an emergency meeting and gives a conservative forecast .
But in the eyes of the industry , Such a conservative prediction is not “ conservative ”. Among them, the decisive key factor lies in the uncertainty of the implementation time of the new small loan regulation .
“ Half a year is the ideal time to go public again 、 The quickest situation . At present, the small loan new regulation that affects its listing is still in the stage of soliciting opinions , Ants need to wait for the implementation of the new rules if they can carry out substantial listing operations , And after communicating with the regulators .” Some senior investment banks in Beijing said .
An analyst in the field of financial technology clearly told reporters that ,“（ Ant ） We have to wait for the formal draft of the new rules on small loans to be listed .”
21 Century economic reporter notes , The deadline for feedback on the draft of the new small loan regulation is 2020 year 12 month 2 Japan , However, the date of the official draft has not been determined .
But it's worth mentioning , Even after the suspension , Ant group is still in the validity period of the approval of IPO registration , Valid for 12 Months .6 It's a bit of a rush to go public again in a month ,1 Is that enough time ？
“ The ant project has reached this stage , It's no longer predictable from business logic ”. Investment Bank of a medium-sized securities firm in South China said , In terms of normal , Special instructions should be added , Demonstrate compliance with the new rules , The impact of the implementation of the new regulations on the company's business .
“ Now it's not something that can be solved by adding special instructions ”, Wang Jiyue, a senior investment banker, said ,“ It is necessary to fully demonstrate whether the existing model conforms to the regulatory spirit , At present, it should be inconsistent with , Then you need to adjust the mode , It involves a series of legal documents adjustment , To enable the new business model to meet regulatory requirements . It also needs to be confirmed by the central bank , It's not that if you say that you're compliant, you're in compliance . Finally, we have to measure the capital requirement of the new business model adjustment , Impact on business growth, etc , Adjust the envelope ”.
And according to the above senior investment banks , After obtaining regulatory approval , Ant group needs to wait for the new small scale loan to be implemented , If there is no substantial difference between the new rules and the draft for comments , After the competent department confirms that the operation is in compliance with the regulations , You can start the re listing process . First, the Municipal Committee of the exchange shall examine and approve , Start the inquiry and issue process again .
“ It's hard to predict , But on the whole 12 Months are not enough .” The investment bank said .
Wang Jiyue said , From the various statements of regulation , Ants should still be listed on the scientific and technological innovation board .“ In the final analysis , Ant is also a technology company , It's a benchmark , Just to regulate ”.
Difficult valuation restructuring
In the industry view , One of the biggest impacts on ants in the draft of the new regulations on small loans is ： In a single syndicated loan , The proportion of capital contribution of a small loan company operating network small loan business shall not be less than 30%.
And the ant platform makes 1.7 Among the trillions of credit balance , The total proportion of loans actually made or assets securitized by the company's financial institution partners is about 98%, By a subsidiary of the company （ It is mainly ant mall and ant micro enterprise ） The proportion of on balance sheet loans directly providing credit services is about 2%.
This is right 40% Its revenue comes from the ant of micro loan technology platform , The impact should not be underestimated .
thus , Eliminating consumer loans or replenishing capital have become two possible paths for ants to restart their listing .
“ I think there are two ways , One is to dismantle the credit business and realize listing , Second, supplementary capital is listed according to the valuation of banks ”. But the senior investment bankers in Beijing said ,“ Both routes are not cost-effective for ants , After dismantling the credit business, the ants lose their core business , Valuations are bound to plummet . If we replenish the capital , That's it ‘ Bloody listing ’, Valuations are also significantly lower than banks ”.
We might as well explore the possible changes of ants' valuation under the two paths .
before , Ant group has always emphasized its technological properties , Downplay its financial attributes ; In market valuation and analogy , It's also an analogy with technology companies . Ant group finally A The issue price of a share is determined as per share 68.8 element , Earnings per share are based on 2019 It is calculated by dividing the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non annual non allocation by the total share capital after issuance without considering the over allotment option , The corresponding P / E ratio is 153.69 times .
If you take out the credit business , Payment business will become the core business . PayPal, America's focus on payment (PayPal,PYPL) The current P / E ratio is currently in 67 times . This is the benchmark , Even if we don't think about the credit business that we've eliminated , The valuation of ants will also drop 45% about .
The financial technology industry analyst said ,“ Ant micro loan business in 2020 Mid year data contributed to it 52% The net profit , If you want to get rid of this part , That's basically the payment business , conduct financial transactions 、 The profit contribution of insurance is relatively small . The future listing still depends on the attitude of the regulatory authorities , Whether its later business rectification and capital increase can meet the regulatory requirements , There are also various business qualifications obtained , We need to wait and see .”
If you choose the second way , According to the calculation of sun Haibo, President of the Institute of financial supervision , In the new rules of small loans “ The proportion of capital contribution shall not be less than 30%” Under the constraint of , If ant group wants to maintain the contract 1.8 The scale of the trillion yuan joint loan , Need at least 5400 Billion yuan of on balance sheet loans and 1700 One hundred million yuan ABS.
And according to on balance sheet loans are the most 5 Double leverage principle , The total principal of ant mall and ant micro businesses needs to be expanded to 1400 One hundred million yuan . At present, their capital is only 176 Million dollars 182 One hundred million yuan , total 358 One hundred million yuan . This means that ant group needs to supplement at least 100 billion capital .
Once the capital is replenished , The valuation logic will adjust accordingly .
Bernstein (Bernstein) Kevin, an analyst in Singapore · Quaker (KevinKwek) Express ：“ When the ant group went public , Investors may not see it as a technology company as before , Because it will no longer adhere to the asset light business model , Growth expectations may also be lower . Considering the regulatory challenges , There may be a discount to the previous valuation .”
Chuancai Securities pointed out that , At present A The overall valuation of financial companies is much lower than that of technology companies , Among them, the price earnings ratio of the banking sector 、 The price to book ratios are respectively 7.0 times 、0.68 times , The price to book ratio of some banks is even lower than 0.5 times , Far less than the ant group 153.69 Times the static price earnings ratio of .
Wind Latest data , China Merchants Bank, which is relatively overvalued in bank stocks PB You can achieve 1.75 times . If calculated according to the current issue price of ant group , The price to book ratio will be close to 9 times . Once the benchmark financial sector valuation method , Ant group's valuation will shrink significantly .
According to tan Jiaping, an analyst at Morningstar , If ant gold clothes IPO Before the price to book ratio fell to the level of the top global banks , Then its valuation may face 25％-50％ The fall of . That means its valuation could be cut about 1400 Billion dollars （ super 9000 RMB 100 million ）.“ At present, ant's stock price is its book value 4.4 times , And among the top global banks mentioned above is 2 times .”
It may be a more scientific way to compare lufax, a financial technology company listed in the US stock market , The company is 10 month 30 Japan's landing in US stocks , The price earnings ratio of the issue is close to 14 times , But it's also much lower than ant group's P / E ratio . however , Medium and long term , Ant group's technology company properties will be more certain , There is still a lot of room for imagination in comparison with the valuation level .
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